Automated vehicle diffusion under uncertainty across national and regional scenarios in Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58922/transportes.v34.e3143Keywords:
Fleet transition; Technology adoption; Passenger car market; Mixed-fleet operations.Abstract
The global transition toward mobility based on automated and autonomous vehicles (AVs) poses a challenge for transportation planning, requiring the analysis of scenar-ios where these vehicles will be introduced and disseminated throughout the fleet. International studies suggest prolonged transition periods and uncertainty regarding the widespread adoption of AVs due to barriers such as additional costs, safety concerns, and coexistence with conventional vehicles. In Brazil, however, scenarios concerning the introduction and dissemination of AVs in the vehicle fleet remain underexplored. This paper presents a scenario analysis of the introduction and dissemination of AVs in the Brazilian passenger car fleet over the coming decades. A model is proposed based on estimated new-vehicle sales and registrations, and the availability of automation technologies in the domestic market. Results show that the share of AVs in the Brazilian fleet is expected to increase gradually over the long term. Under optimistic scenarios, simulations indicate that fully autonomous vehicles are unlikely to account for more than 50% of the Brazilian fleet by 2060, suggesting the coexistence of vehicles with different levels of automation. These findings highlight the need for long-term strategic planning to support vehicle transition, including the regulatory and infrastructure challenges inherent in a mixed-fleet environment.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Alexandre Rodrigues Seixas, Claudio Luiz Marte, Cassiano Augusto Isler, Edvaldo Simões da Fonseca Junior, Leopoldo Rideki Yoshioka
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